Online discourse reflects fears of post-election violence

4 November 2024

There has been significant fearmongering online surrounding the upcoming election. A graphic that received 3.5 million views across X and TikTok reflects this theme, stating “Nov-Jan is going to be one of the most dangerous times that any of us have ever experienced in our lifetimes in the United States”. While this content is not inherently violative of platform policies, the comments and conversation responding to these posts paint a picture of an electorate that is fearful that violence will follow the election, and unsure how best to prepare.  

 In the week prior to November 5th,. ISD analyzed a number of conspiratorial narratives on X, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube and found that they were stoking fears of post-election violence amongst voters, and in some cases led to overt violent rhetoric. The narratives assessed all included claims or insinuations that the US government plans to target its citizens, and that citizens will need to stock up on weapons and other materials to protect themselves and the integrity of the election.    

 These narratives serve to feed into a more dangerous prophecy of civil unrest in the post-election period. As noted in ISD’s election preparedness report, all platforms assessed have policies prohibiting content that may incite violence.

Key Findings  

• Conspiracy theories surrounding post-election violence are gaining traction. 

• • The theories are focused on government agencies and law enforcement rather than political processes.  
  • Much of this content either explicitly stated or implied the government was preparing to use lethal force against US citizens after the election. 

• Rhetoric inspired by the conspiracies shows some believe they may need to take violent action against law enforcement to protect themselves or to enforce their perceived result of the election.  
• Calls to “stock up on guns and ammo” were observed across all platforms in response to the identified conspiratorial narratives. Platform users additionally believed they should prepare for civil unrest by stockpiling not just arms, but also food, water and other essential items. 
• Some responding to the conspiracies have urged others to participate in militia activity.
• Content discussing a recent Department of Defense (DoD) directive (now clarified by the Pentagon), received 24 million impressions across YouTube, X and TikTok. Much of the content either falsely states or implies the government is preparing to use lethal force on US citizens following the election. 

Conspiratorial narratives drive fears of violence surrounding the elections  

A combination of online narratives – from misleading interpretations of a recent DoD directive to sensationalized responses to an FBI whistleblower’s testimony – are stoking public fears of violence and civil unrest in the aftermath of the elections.  

September DOD Directive  

On September 27th, the Department of Defense (DoD) issued directive 5240.01, which establishes policies and assigns responsibilities for intelligence and intelligence-related activities within the department. This directive ensures that all DoD intelligence operations are conducted in compliance with applicable laws, Executive Orders, and regulations.  

 Despite being issued in late September, misleading narratives around the directive appeared to gain traction in mid-October, and have continued to circulate broadly online. Narratives identified included the claim that the directive newly allows the use of lethal force against Americans (it does not). As misleading claims circulated across social media platforms, the DoD took the unusual step of publicly addressing the false claims on October 24. In a statement to The Associated Press, the Pentagon clarified that the directive does not authorize force against civilians and clarified that use of federal troops against Americans is restricted under the Posse Comitatus Act, except in cases of self-defense.  

Nonetheless, these false claims have garnered millions of views across social media platforms and have been amplified by mainstream figures. On X, just 20 posts covering the topic, many featuring misleading commentary, received over 7 million views across seven days. Since October 1, 82,000 X posts have mentioned the directive.  

 On YouTube, a single video discussing the directive received 669,000 views and 14,900 comments. While the content is itself misleading, the more severe and overt effects of the video are evident in the comments section. Examples include “There’s only 1 reason they did this. They’re going to rig it & it’s going to get dangerous. Stay armed & stay vigilant”, “Authorizing military live fire almost certainly guarantees live fire resistance. They seem fatality determined to start a civil shooting war”, and “Sounds like they’re getting ready for martial law to me. Keep your eyes open people”.  

Figure 1. YouTube comments calling for mobilization in response to the DoD Directive.

On TikTok, analysts were able to easily and manually identify eight videos promoting similar misleading claims about the directive. One video asserted that “[the government has] just approved the second civil war.” Similar to YouTube, some of the most severe content was in the comment sections. In one instance, a user commented, “We’ll be waiting for you with open arms, firearms that is.” 

Figure 2. TikTok post claims the government has just
“approved the Second Civil War.”

FBI Whistleblower  

Marcus Allen, an FBI whistleblower who first testified in 2023, appeared before the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government again on September 25. During the testimony, Allen encouraged Americans to exercise their rights to vote and bear arms. He said “arm yourself, and know how to defend yourself” and “make sure you have three to four months of food.” In late September, clips of his testimony, which often included captions and commentary misquoting Allen’s original testimony began to recirculate. The narrative attempted to tie Allen’s testimony to the upcoming elections, seeking to advance the theory that Allen was aware of alleged nefarious FBI actions planned for the elections and was attempting to warn the electorate. 

On X, nine posts featuring clips of Allen’s testimony garnered over 12 million views. These posts frequently implied that Allen knew “something” unknown to the public and was attempting to warn Americans ahead of the elections. While many of the comments expressed fear of post-election violence, there were also overt calls to violence such as “the ballot box won’t fix this, only the ammo box will” and “stock up, lock and load, we have been warned”. Some comments also sought to portray the FBI as an “enemy of the people”. 

Figure 3. Response to a post featuring Allen’s testimony promotes claims that Hurricane Helene was created by the government and warns the government will do it again.

Analysts also identified two videos on TikTok featuring Allen’s testimony, where some comments linked it to claims of an impending civil war. One comment asserted that the government was “preparing to wage war on us”, while another stated “it’s not only a right it is an obligation to overthrow a tyrannical government.”  

Figure 4. Response to a post on X featuring Allen’s testimony claims it is an obligation to “overthrow a tyrannical government.”

“Stop the Steal”

Several posts implied that arms and ammo would be needed to “stop the steal,” a reference to allegations that the election will be stolen from former President Trump and that action is necessary to protect the election. For example, in one X post that received 7.5K views, the user posted “WE MUST STOP THE STEAL! Continue to buy guns and ammo!” This post elicited several expressions of support from commenters with statements such as “Be prepared” and “War it is then…” Analysts identified several posts on X available since July calling on users to bring those guns and ammo to the polls, an action that is illegal in 17 states.  

Figure 5. X post calling to stop the steal and buy guns and ammo.

White House Evacuation Training  

On October 28, the US Capitol Police along with federal partners conducted a pre-planned and publicly announced training exercise within the US Capitol. Throughout the evening and following morning recordings of the event were posted across social media and quickly led to speculation about the motive for the exercise. One video on TikTok stated, “I have never seen anything like this in my life. And yes they are up to something. Everybody pray for America.” Similarly, a post on X read, “They are ramping up mass security for the Capitol because they are planning to maintain control of the Capitol by winning the house…They will stop everything, they will impeach Trump again, and they will abuse every ounce of power that comes with the House of Representatives”.  

Just ten videos identified by analysts across YouTube, X and TikTok garnered 2.8 million views. The posts either directly espoused alarming conjecture as to the motive of the military exercise, or received a significant number of comments including these misleading narratives.  

Voters Prepare for Violence  

The narratives identified by analysts appear to be contributing to heightened fears of post-election violence, leading voters to believe they must prepare to defend themselves through armed means, or use force to overcome a government attempt to “rig the election”. Posts and comments identified across X, TikTok, YouTube and Facebook encouraged users to stock up on ammo, guns, food, medicine and other basic goods in anticipation of civil unrest after the elections. While some of these calls seem to reflect genuine fear and a desire to prepare in the event of civil unrest, some accounts are actively playing on these fears to urge others to participate in militia activity.

Figure 6. Posts on X call on followers to stock up on guns and ammo.

One video on TikTok, which received 223,000 views stated “Sheriff in Davidson County NC calls for local citizens to form militias to protect the constitution”. Another video on the platform, with 23,000 views stated “Calling all the lions it’s time to prepare *shtf* [‘shit hits the fan’] is coming. Free training nationwide”. 

Figure 7. Posts on TikTok calling on users to mobilize.

Platform Responses  

Content that directly advocated for violence, could be seen as direct incitement to violence, or included coded incitement, was easily accessible on all platforms. This was especially true within conversations taking place in post comments. Such content is violative of policies prohibiting incitement to violence across X, YouTube, TikTok and Meta. While there is easily accessible violative content, platforms must navigate a fine line as concerns of post election violence become more widespread to ensure that speech simply expressing fears and seeking to prepare in the event of civil unrest is not over-moderated.  

Conclusion 

As was observed in 2020, mainstream platforms can play a significant role in efforts to mobilize or encourage election-related violence. An analysis of violent rhetoric surrounding the election on mainstream platforms ahead of next week’s elections suggests the primary drivers for this language are conspiracy theories or misleading content, as well as fear of future civil unrest. Conspiratorial claims surrounding US government laws and activities in preparation for election day are being used to incite and encourage violence in either self-defense against the US government or to protect the outcome of the election. Additionally present in this dataset are concerns that regardless of the result, civil unrest will ensue, and therefore it is necessary for Americans to stock up on supplies, such as food and weapons.  

While analysts have not observed content indicative of a January 6 style insurrection and much of the rhetoric involves expressions of fear of violence, not credible threats, content that directly advocates for and/or likely seeks to incite violence was identified on the platforms. Decisions related to moderation of violent rhetoric surrounding the election have the potential to play a significant role in either aiding or deterring political violence in the coming weeks and months. 

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