A quantitative analysis of domestic extremist responses to the US elections
15 November 2024
By: Milo Comerford, Jessica Mahoney, and Steven Rai
To help understand the immediate impact of the 2024 election on the landscape of US domestic extremism, ISD quantitatively analyzed online extremist activity on election day, including the five days preceding and following. Data was collected from hundreds of manually verified domestic violent extremist accounts and channels across the ideological spectrum on X, YouTube, Telegram, Facebook, Instagram and Reddit, as well as extremism and election relevant activity from US users on 4chan’s /pol/ board. Analysis breaks down activity by platform, group and ideology, drawing on thematic classifiers and topic filters to understand salient narratives.
Key Findings
Previous ISD research has shown how over recent months US domestic violent extremists have focused heavily on elections and voting, which comprised almost 10% of all online discussion among these constituencies in August and September. Zooming in on the immediate election context, we see several key trends in online activity by known violent extremist accounts (hereafter shortened to ‘online extremist activity’):
- Online extremist activity consistently increased throughout election week, with roughly 70% more activity on November 6 compared to October 31. This was followed by a dramatic decline on November 7 (the day after results were announced) with online extremist activity almost halving. By November 10, online activity among online extremists had declined to the lowest overall level for at least a month.
- Almost a third of all posts from extremists during this period mentioned election-related keywords. Within this subset, allegations of election fraud and non-citizen voting were key narratives, constituting over 1 in 10 election-related messages from extremists.
- Claims around election fraud and non-citizens voting peaked on November 6th, with over 3,000 mentions of these narratives by domestic extremists on this day. However, in line with overall patterns of activity, these narratives rapidly dropped by 55% after the presidential and majority of Congressional races were called.
- Anti-government and anti-authority extremist accounts, which made up roughly 40% of activity during the period immediately before and after the election, pushed conspiracy theories about the 2020 election results and called for “justice” against perceived enemies and those guilty of corruption by the so-called “deep state.”
- Racially and ethnically motivated extremists, including neo-Nazis and white nationalists, reacted to the presidential election results with a mix of optimism, hesitancy, and varied assessments as to whether a second term under President-elect Donald Trump would yield positive results for their ideological causes.
- Online activity by militant anarchists – despite being substantially lower than that of other extremist actors – increased in relative terms after the election, with many expressing disillusionment over the political status quo and US policy towards Israel, but with very few direct calls for violence.
Cross-platform dynamics: An overall increase in extremist activity, followed by a sudden drop-off
After a steady increase in overall online extremist activity in the run up to Election Day, message numbers peaked across all platforms the day after the election, when the presidential result was called. November 6 constituted the highest single day of online extremist activity across the previous month of data, with nearly 85,000 domestic extremism-related posts on this day.
Analysts saw a 66% rise in online extremist activity on Telegram between October 31 and November 6, the day the presidential race results were announced. Telegram was the most active platform in our dataset among domestic extremists on November 6, with over 36,000 posts. On 4chan’s extremist /pol/ board, election related discussion, as well as language associated with targeted hate and extremism, increased by 154% among US users over the same period. On X, activity from domestic extremist accounts rose by 56%, albeit from a considerably lower base compared to these other platforms.
This peak was followed by an immediate and steep drop-off in extremist activity across the board. Comparing November 6, when the election was called for President-elect Trump, and November 7, we saw a 36% drop in Telegram activity, a 45% decrease in relevant activity on 4chan’s /pol/ and a 48% decline in activity by extremist accounts on X.
Key Narratives: Election fraud and anti-migrant discussion
Election fraud
Keywords relating to alleged election fraud and non-citizens voting narratives appeared in over 10% of messages related to the election among online extremists. The majority of these mentions (over two thirds) related to voter fraud, where prominent narratives centered on allegations that the election results proved that Democrats were reliant on fraud to win elections, reflecting long-held grievances by some extremists who believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.
Mentions of alleged fraud spiked on November 6, the day after the election. Once the presidential race was called for former President Trump, anti-government and anti-authority accounts promoted the false narrative that Trump was being rightfully restored to power after the 2020 election was “stolen” from him.
Beginning on November 6, conspiratorial and election-denialist accounts attempted to sow doubt in the electoral process in states where outstanding races for Senate and House seats had yet to be decided. On November 7, one extremist Telegram post viewed over 50,000 times claimed that Trump had won the election despite alleged efforts to undermine its results, including through bomb threats in battleground states, the alleged loss of Republican ballots, widespread machine malfunctioning, and other alleged irregularities. Another Telegram group chat post on November 7 viewed over 39,000 times, said that users should “buckle up” for “Phase II”, suggesting that alleged widespread election fraud would result in jail sentences.
Anti-migrant discussion
Thematic classifiers revealed that across almost all social media platforms analyzed, anti-migrant messages from extremists spiked in the days following the election. Among other prominent narratives, extremists claimed that “illegals” were engaging in voter fraud and expressed optimism that Trump’s victory would pave the way for mass deportations.
In total, between October 31 and November 6, anti-migrant posts, which included calls for mass deportations, increased by over 200%. On Telegram and 4chan, anti-migrant posts remained elevated in the days following the election compared to their baseline levels.
In several anti-government and conspiratorial group chats on Telegram, users expressed excitement over a message from a high-profile political figure announcing that mass deportations would commence at noon on January 20, 2025. Multiple channels also denounced statements by state and local-level political officials indicating that they would not assist with federal efforts to conduct mass deportations. One such announcement by Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey provoked vague threats that this “would not end well for her.”
Extremist discussion around noncitizen voting peaked on 4chan’s /pol/ board on the day after the election before declining overnight into November 7. Discussion was driven by accusations of Democrats purposefully allowing illegal migrations for their own electoral gains, as well as calls for mass deportations and the use of racist and antisemitic language.
Key Actors: Anti-government extremists lead the pack
Anti-government extremist accounts were the most active category during this period, making up approximately 40% of all online extremist activity analyzed. However, violent extremist accounts with a less clear group affiliation or ideological alignment (coded in our data as ‘other’) were almost as active, comprising 37% of activity.
While activity from extremists motivated by anti-government ideologies peaked on election day itself, racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist accounts saw a brief decline in activity in the 48 hours before Election Day, before a rise on the day results were announced, which was also the day when activity by ‘other’ extremists (largely violent conspiracy-motivated actors) peaked during the election period.
White Supremacist and Neo-Nazi Responses
Following the election, reactions among white supremacists and neo-Nazis varied widely—some expressed optimism while others were indifferent or pessimistic. Of note, numerous actors capitalized on the election results to push for the release of January 6 defendants and for mass deportations. Overall, posting levels among these actors remained somewhat stable around the election, likely reflecting the fact that many neo-Nazis and white supremacists believe that conventional politics, including elections, will not advance their cause.
Nevertheless, some extremists claimed that President-elect Trump’s win would be a positive development, believing that it would allow them to further mainstream their ideology and result in the release of January 6 arrestees. Some reacted negatively, assessing that Trump did not do enough in his previous term and predicting that he will not do enough in the future to implement their desired societal changes. Notably, an influential neo-Nazi leader threatened that if the GOP did not follow through with mass deportations and the release of January 6 arrestees, they would treat GOP events like “Drag Queen Story Hours” and “Antifa events”, with the implication that such events would be targeted with potentially violent harassment.
Others called for violence or told their followers to prepare for violence. One neo-Nazi group told their followers that the election would result in left-wing violence and urged them to be “active, motivated, and organized.” Similarly, a neo-Confederate group made non-specific calls for violence against Democrats and liberals.
Militant Anarchist Responses
The election results provoked resentment among militant anarchist actors who are disillusioned with the political status quo in the US, with much of their online activity focusing on the positions of both presidential candidates towards Israel. Posting activity among these actors rose in the aftermath of the election and remained elevated compared to baseline levels, with posts by these accounts increasing by over 200% between November 2 and November 9. However, online activity among these accounts was low overall—during the period examined in this report, white supremacists and neo-Nazis produced nearly 16 times the number of posts compared to militant anarchists.
A number of accounts bemoaned President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris based on their perception that they share nearly identical policies related to Israel. Some actors accused Harris of being a “War Criminal” and criticized Democrats for expecting them to vote for a person they suggest is culpable for “genocide”. Several accounts encouraged followers to organize community groups and self-defense networks, buy weapons, engage in civil disobedience and protest, and carry out “direct action.”
One demonstration in downtown Seattle involved the vandalism of property with graffiti that reportedly included the phrases “kill cops” and “Fuck Harris.” Police quickly dispersed the rally and arrested five participants for property damage. Analysts did not identify specific plans for violence, but one militant anarchist group vaguely encouraged “subversion” and “insurrection”. Other militant anarchist actors encouraged rioting, made vague calls for action on January 20, and indicated support for “illegal direct action.”
Proud Boys
Proud Boys-affiliated accounts were extremely active in the immediate aftermath of the election, relative to usual patterns of activity. While this has not translated to real-world action, the Proud Boys have signaled that the election results have galvanized them and expressed hope that Trump will pardon their incarcerated leaders.
In the weeks leading up to the election, posting activity across five notable domestic extremist movements (Proud Boys, Active Clubs, White Lives Matter, Patriot Front, and Blood Tribe) were relatively stable. On election day itself and the day following, activity remained stable for all these groups with the notable exception of the Proud Boys. Between November 3 and November 6, there was a 427% increase in posts by Proud Boys-linked accounts. Following this period, their online activity stabilized to baseline levels.
In celebration of Trump’s victory, a major Proud Boys channel announced that they were “back”. Further, several accounts leveraged the election results to call for the release of incarcerated Proud Boys leaders and circulated a fundraising campaign for these prisoners. On November 5, a channel associated with an unofficial Proud Boys chapter indicated that “a sea of black and yellow” would fill DC on January 20 in support of Trump’s inauguration. Two days later, the Proud Boys’ national channel issued an open letter revealing that nearly 100 people were planning to travel to DC during the inauguration to advocate for the pardoning of their convicted leaders. The letter attempted to discourage them from doing so out of fear that such a demonstration could jeopardize their cause.
Conclusion
Given the clear focus on election related topics by US domestic extremists online in recent months, it is unsurprising that November 5 would serve as a major galvanizing event, in particular around the issues of alleged voter fraud and illegal voting, which have gained much more mainstream resonance beyond an extremist fringe. However, perhaps of greater surprise was the dramatic drop-off in online activity after results were announced, in many cases to the lowest level seen for months, showing how the election result has introduced a degree of flux among these constituencies, amid potential surprise at the speed and nature of the outcome. The broad range of reactions to the election results across the ideological spectrum of extremism, ranging from celebration to frustration to indifference, alongside indications of extremists already looking ahead to upcoming events like inauguration day on January 20, show the need for close monitoring of the potential offline impacts of a highly dynamic online threat environment over the coming weeks and months.
