Elections often create conditions of heightened volatility, serving as an opportunity for extremists to spread hate, conspiracy theories and disillusionment with democracy. This Dispatch shows that the upcoming election in Canada is no exception. Domestic extremists are pushing corrosive narratives and harmful agendas, capitalizing on significant geopolitical shifts including America’s newly antagonistic stance towards Canada. 

This article draws on over 160,000 posts made between March 1 and April 12 by 254 Canadian domestic extremist accounts. It explores the primary narratives and grievances that are animating domestic extremists ahead of the federal election on April 28, which is widely viewed as the most consequential in decades.  

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Key takeaways

• The deteriorating US-Canada relationship has been the most influential issue among Canadian domestic extremists ahead of the election on April 28, with more than 4,700 messages referring to it. Generally, ISD found that support for either country varied across ideological lines. Christian Nationalists were more likely to support the US in its intent to acquire Canada while ethnonationalists were more protective of Canada’s sovereignty. 
• Immigration-related narratives have also been key drivers of discussion among domestic extremists, many of whom take inspiration from hardline positions mainstreamed in the US. Over 22 percent of immigration-related messages contained targeted hate speech, and numerous extremists called for mass deportations of ethnic minorities. 
• Many domestic extremists remain resentful over the Canadian government’s perceived mismanagement of the Covid pandemic and are spreading conspiracy theories designed to sow distrust in democracy. These conspiracy theorists have attacked leaders of both major parties for allegedly pursuing “globalist” interests at the expense of ordinary Canadians.  
• Unlike their US counterparts, election fraud narratives have not served as a central rallying point among Canadian domestic extremists at the time of writing. Foreign interference, including state and non-state influence campaigns, has also not been a focal point of extremist conversation, although mis- and disinformation persistently shape extremist views, including with respect to the upcoming election.   
• Numerous domestic extremists believe that the upcoming election will not bring about their desired societal changes. While these extremists sometimes prefer violent solutions to their grievances, ISD has not uncovered any evidence at this time suggesting that they plan to engage in violence around the election. 

Note on terminology 

ISD applied its definition of domestic extremism to find relevant accounts and channels. ISD defines domestic extremism as a belief system that is characterised by its reference to racial, ethnic, cultural supremacy which advocates a system of belief in inequality based on an alleged difference and the perceived threat posed by out-groups. This extremism is often framed in terms of white power and commonly exhibits nationalism, racism, xenophobia, anti-democracy, misogyny, hate against minority communities, and strong state advocacy.  

This definition states that extremism can be pursued through violent or non-violent means. It thereby complements efforts to address political violence and terrorism by considering the broader risks non-violent extremism poses to democracy, rights and social cohesion. This broader focus also highlights the continuum of ideologies and activities that inspire violence and illuminates different pathways to radicalization.  

Methodology  

To better understand what has been animating Canadian domestic extremists ahead of the federal election, ISD collected 160,132 messages from extremist accounts on X, Telegram, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram between March 1 and April 12. Messages were collected through official Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) and the social listening tool Brandwatch, after which we applied Boolean search queries and bespoke language classifiers to capture prominent narratives and targeted hate speech throughout the dataset. We also conducted ethnographic research into relevant accounts to gain an in-depth understanding of the conversations taking place online among domestic extremists.  

Quantitative overview of extremist discourse ahead of the federal election 

Analysis revealed that developments in the US-Canada relationship drove significant spikes in domestic extremist discussion between March 1 and April 12. Some of the most active days in the dataset were marked by major speeches or announcements by the Canadian government about the US, with the single most active day occurring on March 4, when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivered a speech announcing that Canada would be implementing counter-tariffs against the US. Other events that drove considerable discussion included Prime Minister Mark Carney’s statement that the era of close economic and security ties with the US was “over” on March 27 and Carney’s announcement of tariffs on US automobiles on April 3.  

Canadian domestic extremists reacted to these developments with a mixture of despair and optimism. Some capitalized upon economic anxieties to push hardline positions on immigration. However, others expressed excitement over their belief that these policies would be a precursor to America’s takeover of the Canadian federal government, which they view as immoral or corrupt.    

When analyzing posts by extremists across ideological categories (a breakdown of which is provided in an Annex below) , ISD found that ethnonationalists were the most active in the dataset (51,745 posts). They were followed closely by white supremacists (46,061 posts). Anti-Muslim extremists were also highly active, generating 30,531 posts during the reporting period. The large presence of these ideological actors, along with their less active but more radical neo-Nazi and/or accelerationist compatriots, highlights the central role of xenophobia and racism as primary motivators for large swaths of domestic extremists in Canada.  

However, as outlined below, race-related grievances are among several issues animating domestic extremists ahead of election. Canadian extremists are latching on to a range of seemingly disparate narratives and grievances to promote their worldviews, in line with global trends. This reflects the increased prevalence of nebulous and hybridized ideologies among today’s extremists.  

Mobilizing narratives and grievances 

While not all posts during the review period were relevant to the election, ISD analyzed five themes that have featured prominently in mainstream political conversation in Canada or during ethnographic monitoring to gauge their salience among domestic extremists.  

 ISD found that the US-Canada relationship has been the predominant issue galvanizing domestic extremists in the lead-up to the election. Immigration-related discourse and conspiracy theories also drove significant discussion.  

 By contrast, the topic of foreign interference by hostile state and non-state actors has not featured prominently in conversations by domestic extremists. However, this does not mean that extremists have not been targeted by such efforts. Similarly, election fraud narratives do not appear to be widespread among Canadian extremists. This is in direct contrast to their US counterparts who were significantly animated by the prospect of fraud ahead of the 2024 presidential election. 

US-Canada relations 

The US-Canada relationship was the most prevalent issue across extremist discussion in the lead-up to the election. It featured in more than 4,700 posts which received over 8.9 million engagements (combined views, likes, comments and shares across platforms).   

Generally, ISD found that support for either country varied across ideological lines. Christian Nationalists were more likely to support the US in its intent to acquire Canada due to their alignment with the Trump administration’s social and economic policies. By contrast, ethnonationalists were more protective of Canada’s sovereignty, seeing US encroachment as a threat to Canada’s national identity. Other extremists eschewed picking sides altogether: instead, they sought to undermine public confidence in Canada’s federal government and attack political leaders who they claim are ill-equipped to effectively manage the situation.  

Some domestic extremists exploited US President Donald Trump’s desire to make Canada its “51st state” to muster support for Alberta separatism. These individuals see opportunity in Trump’s remarks: they believe that joining the US will lead to economic and cultural prosperity. In their view, Alberta is a natural ally of the US given a shared interest in energy development, individualism and cultural conservatism. These beliefs are particularly widespread among Christian Nationalists and adherents of the QAnon movement: one Telegram channel with nearly 1,600 subscribers claimed that “ALBERTA would see an ECONOMIC BQQM2 [sic] NEVER SEEN BEFORE” if it were to secede and join the US. By contrast, while Quebec separatism has been a longstanding issue in Canadian politics, ISD has not identified significant discussion about Quebec becoming the 51st state in the lead-up to the federal election.  

Immigration 

Immigration-related grievances were also prominent, featuring in more than 2,900 posts and generating over 2.3 million engagements. Notably, domestic extremists have taken ideological and policy cues from the US in discussing immigration, including calls for mass deportations and other aggressive measures which they say will protect Canada from perceived cultural, economic and social threats. Concerningly, immigration-related posts have often been inflected with hateful rhetoric demonizing ethnic minorities in Canada, with trained language classifiers detecting hate speech in over 22 percent of such messages. 

On X, a prominent ethnonationalist outlined what their policy priorities would be if they were to run for Prime Minister. Their post received more than 73,000 views and 1,000 shares. Many of this user’s plans drew direct inspiration from the current US administration, including calls for mass deportations and immigration bans. Also of note, during ethnographic monitoring, ISD found that Muslims and South Asians were disproportionately targeted by Canadian domestic extremists. These accounts have latched on to hateful tropes to justify deporting these minorities en masse, such as by associating Muslims with terrorism and South Asians with poor hygiene.  

Conspiratorial narratives 

Many domestic extremists continue to take exploit the Canadian government’s perceived mismanagement of the Covid pandemic to foster distrust in democracy. In the context of the upcoming election, these individuals remain steadfast in their belief that vaccines, lockdowns and other pandemic response measures prove Canada’s political elites are pursuing a nefarious, “globalist” agenda. ISD’s analysis found more than 2,100 posts discussing such grievances, which collectively received more than 1.5 million engagements.  

Canadian domestic extremists motivated by these conspiracy theories have been largely party-agnostic. They have accused both Carney and Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre of collaborating with sinister international forces at the expense of ordinary Canadians. For example, in the wake of disinformation which falsely accused Carney of having been friends with disgraced financier and pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, extremists made hundreds of posts amplifying this narrative. Some messages explicitly accused Carney of being a child rapist.  

Another X user stated that if Canadians knew about Poilievre and Carney’s alleged involvement in pursuing a “Covid depopulation agenda”, they would want to kill them. Such messages highlight the enduring role of conspiracy theories in mobilizing domestic extremists, with many of them exploiting pandemic-era narratives to attack the legitimacy of elections and democracy as a whole.    

Foreign interference 

Foreign interference by state and non-state actors has not emerged as a salient theme in domestic extremist discourse ahead of the election. While foreign interference poses a legitimate threat to Canada’s democracy, this topic only featured in 663 posts in the dataset.  

Generally, Canadian domestic extremists have been less concerned with covert foreign meddling in the election than they are with the belief that Canada’s government is already thoroughly compromised. In their view, the country is already a vassal state for hostile actors like China, whose interference has been well-documented in Canada. This sentiment was expressed in a Telegram post describing Canada as a “Chinese proxy”, which received more than 1,300 likes. Given these false narratives, there is an elevated risk of certain ethnic groups being targeted with hate and harassment.  

 However, the possibility that Canadian domestic extremists may be targets of foreign mis- and disinformation campaigns should not be discounted. Conspiracy theories linking Carney to Epstein were partly spread by an American outlet identified as one of Facebook’s largest sources of misinformation, demonstrating how Canadian extremists could be victims of outside manipulation.  

Election fraud 

Claims of election fraud have had lower levels of prevalence in Canada than in the US