In the aftermath of February’s tragic shooting in Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia, which left nine dead and 27 injured, online discourse rapidly moved to the transgender identity of the perpetrator. ISD’s analysis found that this contributed to the most pronounced spike in Canadian anti-LGBTQ+ activity observed over the past six months, as well as a wider increase in anti-LGBTQ+ hate speech online. We found that a small number of recurring narratives which also emerged after similar tragedies in the US drove much of the engagement. Similar themes were promoted within general online discourse and by Canadian domestic extremists.

This Dispatch examines the rise in general anti-LGBTQ+ messaging online following the attack. It also analyzes narratives posted by Canadian domestic extremist accounts, drawing on a dataset developed as part of a multi-year study into such actors. We show how themes that have long been prevalent in extremist spaces emerged more prominently across the broader public in the aftermath of the shooting.

Key findings

• The Tumbler Ridge attack was followed by a marked rise in posts containing anti-LGBTQ+ hate speech online. Canadian users made more than 10,000 such posts the day after the attack, which was the most pronounced spike in anti-LGBTQ+ hate speech between August 2025 and February 2026. Globally, more than 154,000 posts were recorded after the attack, the third-largest increase in such hate during the same time period.
• Canadian domestic extremist accounts sharply increased anti-LGBTQ+ hate activity online in response to the attack. Anti-LGBTQ+ posts rose from an average of 20 per day in the week leading up to the attack to 233 posts on 11 February (the day after the attack), a rise of more than 1,000 percent.
• Engagement was driven by a small number of recurring narratives. These included claims that transgender individuals are inherently violent, that transgender identity is a form of mental illness, that authorities were trying to hide the shooter’s gender identity, and that supportive parents or inclusive policies were to blame for the attack.
• Anti-LGBTQ+ narratives promoted by Canadian domestic extremists overlapped with those expressed by the general online public. This overlap suggests a convergence of narratives that can be intensified across different communities in the aftermath of high-profile acts of violence.

Glossary

Domestic extremism: ISD defines domestic extremism as a belief system that is characterized by its reference to racial, ethnic, cultural supremacy which advocates a system of belief in inequality based on an alleged difference and the perceived threat posed by out-groups. This extremism is often framed in terms of white power and commonly exhibits nationalism, racism, xenophobia, anti-democracy, misogyny, hate against minority communities and strong state advocacy.

This definition states that extremism can be pursued through violent or non-violent means. It thereby complements efforts to address political violence and terrorism by considering the broader risks non-violent extremism poses to democracy, rights and social cohesion. This broader focus also highlights the continuum of ideologies and activities that inspire violence and illuminates different pathways to radicalization.

Targeted hate: ISD defines hate as an activity which seeks to dehumanize, demonize, harass, threaten or incite violence against an individual or community based on their race, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation, gender, disability or migrant status.

Methodology

This analysis draws from two different datasets:

• The first examines general and Canada-specific anti-LGBTQ+ speech online,
• The second examines responses to the attack from a set of accounts labelled as Canadian domestic extremists as part of an ongoing project.

General anti-LGBTQ+ hate trends were analyzed using the social media monitoring tool Brandwatch. Analysts developed an initial set of keywords based on prior research, expert input, and known homophobic and transphobic narratives. Boolean queries were constructed in Brandwatch. These were then refined repeatedly through manual review to minimize false positives and ensure only relevant hateful content was captured. After finalizing queries, Brandwatch data was collected for the defined timeframe.

Canada-specific conversation was determined through Brandwatch’s location classifier, which uses multiple data points, including an account’s geocoordinates, disclosed location, and time zone to determine location.

ISD’s analysis of Canadian domestic extremist^¹ reactions drew on a bespoke dataset of more than 73,000 messages made by 368 accounts between 4 February and 16 February 2026. Content was captured from X (formerly Twitter), Telegram, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. Messages were collected through official Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) and Brandwatch. Large Language Model (LLM)-based classifiers trained by ISD experts were used to identify messages containing hate speech.

Anti-LGBTQ+ hate flourishes across major online ecosystems

After the 10 February mass casualty attack in Tumbler Ridge, the perpetrator was quickly identified as a transgender woman. Almost immediately, there was a wave of activity on major social media which sought to portray the event as an example of a broader threat posed by the transgender community. This is a common pattern: when a perpetrator of violence belongs to a marginalized group, online discussion often treats their identity as a root cause of the violence. This can turn tragedies into flashpoints of polarization and scapegoating.

Analysis of anti-LGBTQ+ hate in the six months leading up to the Tumbler Ridge attack and the immediate aftermath shows that the incident contributed to a significant spike both globally and within Canada. While the level of hateful rhetoric waxed and waned over the six months analyzed, the Tumbler Ridge shooting appeared to drive one of the most notable surges in global anti-LGBTQ+ activity online: a 132 percent day-on-day increase to more than 154,000 posts.

Figure 1: Six-month volume-over-time graph of global anti-LGBTQ+ hate speech across major social media platforms. 

An analysis of global social media data revealed that the Tumbler Ridge shooting coincided with the third-largest spike in anti-LGBTQ+ hate speech between 15 August 2025 and 15 February 2026. The largest spike followed the mass shooting at the Annunciation Church in Minneapolis (US) in late August–when it was discovered that the perpetrator of that attack was transgender, there was a similar focus on their identity to explain the violence. The second highest spike followed the killing of Charlie Kirk in mid-September, when online reactions fixated on the suspect’s gender identity and promoted unverified reports tying them to “transgender ideology”. This pattern illustrates how online actors exploit perpetrators’ identities by using tragic acts of violence to demonize marginalized groups en masse.

The impact of the Tumbler Ridge attack on anti-LGBTQ+ hate was even more pronounced across Canada-based online conversations. ISD’s analysis of posts by accounts with clear Canadian geolocation signals found that the attack coincided with the single largest spike in such hate speech over the six-month period examined. We identified more than 10,000 posts, a day-on-day increase of more than 1000 percent.

Figure 2: Six-month volume-over-time graph of Canadian anti-LGBTQ+ hate speech across major social media platforms.

More than twice as many anti-LGBTQ+ posts were made by Canadian accounts in the aftermath of Tumbler Ridge compared to the entire period following the Minneapolis attack. This suggests that domestic events may provoke stronger reactions within their respective countries, especially when portrayed as evidence of a social problem that exists close to home. In Canada, localized grievances were interlinked with anti-LGBTQ+ hate. This included claims that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) had tried to deliberately ‘cover-up’ the transgender identity of the shooter as well as criticism of the police and media for respecting the perpetrator’s gender pronouns.

Canadian domestic extremists capitalize on the tragedy

ISD’s analysis also uncovered parallel trends among Canadian domestic extremists online. These actors used the attack to spread anti-LGBTQ+ narratives, framing Canada’s progressive, inclusive society as a source of instability.

Figure 3: Volume over time graph of anti-LGBTQ+ hate speech by Canadian domestic extremists, 4-15 February 2026.

In the week leading up to the Tumbler Ridge attack, Canadian domestic extremists made an average of 20 anti-LGBTQ+ posts per day. On 11 February, when news of the attack and the perpetrator’s identity became widely known, that increased more than 1,000 percent to 233 posts. Hateful rhetoric remained elevated in the days following the incident, with Canadian extremists posting an average of 114 anti-LGBTQ+ posts per day between 12 and 15 February–more than five times the pre-attack baseline.

Canadian domestic extremists reacted similarly to other mass casualty attacks. The highest daily volume of overall hate speech between June to August 2025 was on 27 August, the day of the Annunciation Church shooting in Minneapolis. These findings suggest that high-profile attacks involving transgender perpetrators function as predictable triggers for mobilization within extremist ecosystems, with actors attempting to rapidly capitalize upon tragedies by vilifying minority groups.

A small number of recurring anti-LGBTQ+ narratives proliferate online

ISD’s analysis found that a small number of recurring themes are routinely used to demonize trans people. These are common across both widely accessible online spaces and more ideologically insular communities. These narratives framed the Tumbler Ridge attack as evidence of a broader societal threat posed by the transgender community rather than as an isolated occurrence.

The most prominent narratives claim the shooter’s transgender identity was the primary cause of the attack. Many messages claimed that the attack was evidence of an ‘epidemic’ of transgender violence and were often accompanied by misleading statistics insinuating that trans people were disproportionately responsible for mass casualty incidents. Some users alleged that gender-affirming care (particularly hormone therapy) caused aggression: a prominent Canadian anti-government extremist posted a message on X attacking gender-affirming care for youth and angrily rejecting the idea of providing hormone treatments that they claimed would make children aggressive. Their post received more than 140,000 views, 11,000 likes, and 1,500 shares.

A second recurring theme presented transgender identity as a form of mental illness. While discussions about the Tumbler Ridge shooter’s struggles with mental health were widespread, many posts suggested that being transgender was itself a psychological disorder. This narrative was also used to criticize social progressives for allegedly preventing these individuals from being ‘treated’. A contributor to a Canadian alternative media outlet posted a video falsely attributed to the shooter. They then claimed it was evidence that transgender identity should be understood as a form of mental illness rather than a legitimate identity. The post received more than 68,000 views, 630 shares, and 4,400 likes.

Another common narrative was that Canadian police and media outlets were intentionally hiding the perpetrator’s transgender identity and that the use of certain language to describe the shooter was an example of ideological bias. On Telegram, a Canadian conspiracy theorist and anti-government extremist criticized the RCMP for describing the shooter as a “gunperson”. They also blended anti-trans rhetoric with antisemitic conspiracy theories, arguing that Canadian institutions were prioritizing the protection of “transgender ideology”–which they considered by be part of a broader Jewish and satanic influence effort–over the safety of children. On X, another influential Canadian anti-government extremist claimed that news outlets describing the suspect according to their gender identity were functioning as ideological propaganda platforms rather than credible media organizations.

Finally, users targeted the shooter’s mother for her role in affirming her child’s gender identity. They claimed that this contributed to their instability and mobilization to violence. Such messages were often linked to a broader opposition to gender-affirming care, inclusive policies and LGBTQ+ rights. An X post from a Canadian Christian Nationalist which argued that parents who affirm their children’s gender identity could get themselves murdered received more than 1.5 million views, 73,000 likes and nearly 1,000 comments. A prominent Canadian white supremacist with more than 38,000 followers on X lamented the fact that Tumbler Ridge was reinvigorating debates over gun control. They claimed that the incident reflected a social and cultural decline enabled by liberal politics rather than a problem related to firearms.

These themes were common across Canadian domestic extremist spaces and general online discussion alike. This overlap suggests that high-profile violent incidents can animate a convergence of narratives across different communities, prompting similar framings to emerge in both fringe and general online spaces. This analysis also highlights how hateful narratives, particular those targeting trans people, have been repurposed following similar tragedies elsewhere. When perpetrators’ identities are used to explain acts of violence, it can unfairly shape public perceptions, influence policy, and enable hostility and hatred.

Conclusion

The reaction to the Tumbler Ridge shooting highlights how quickly a single act of violence can be weaponized and used as evidence of a broader societal threat. ISD’s analysis shows that the sharp rise in anti-LGBTQ+ hate speech was not limited to fringe extremist networks but also prevalent across popular online spaces, where similar narratives and themes were invoked to demonize a marginalized group.

When explanations for violence blame entire identity groups, they overlook the complex social, environmental, and behavioural factors that give rise to it. This can also harden public attitudes and fuel additional hate, harassment, and exclusion. Ultimately, tragedies like the attack in Tumbler Ridge not only have implications for public safety but also for the integrity of civic discourse. How societies respond to these moments can shape whether violence is understood as the act of an individual or instead used to stigmatize entire communities.

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End notes

^¹ISD applied its definition of domestic extremism to find relevant accounts and channels. ISD defines domestic extremism as a belief system that is characterised by its reference to racial, ethnic, cultural supremacy which advocates a system of belief in inequality based on an alleged difference and the perceived threat posed by out-groups. This extremism is often framed in terms of white power and commonly exhibits nationalism, racism, xenophobia, anti-democracy, misogyny, hate against minority communities, and strong state advocacy.   

This definition states that extremism can be pursued through violent or non-violent means. It thereby complements efforts to address political violence and terrorism by considering the broader risks non-violent extremism poses to democracy, rights and social cohesion. This broader focus also highlights the continuum of ideologies and activities that inspire violence and illuminates different pathways to radicalization.