Monitoring Influence & Disinformation Campaigns in the Western Balkans (MEDIWEB)

Published: 18 December 2024

This study on Monitoring Influence and Disinformation Campaigns in the Western Balkans (MEDIWEB) aims to identify and analyse information manipulation in the region, conducted with funding from the German Federal Foreign Office. Drawing on existing sources, media monitoring and social media data analysis, it studies content from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia between December 2023 and June 2024. 

Our research found that most disinformation is amplified and disseminated by politicians and media outlets linked to political parties in the region, although external actors also sought to erode the EU’s standing in the Western Balkans.   

There are distinct differences between the countries studied. Serbia, led by President Aleksandar Vučić, serves as the central hub for pro-Kremlin propaganda. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, there are efforts to rewrite contemporary history after the dissolution of Yugoslavia. And in North Macedonia, scepticism about EU integration is now rife among formerly pro-EU institutions. 

The study also identifies emergent threats to the region. It is likely that the Kremlin will continue to use the Western Balkans to obstruct the growth of Euro-Atlantic cooperation and divert focus from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. A potential reconfiguration of America’s geo-strategic policy is likely to amplify this threat, given uncertainty over trans-Atlantic ties in the wake of the recent US elections. Finally, the fading prospects for actual EU enlargement diminish incentives for governments in the Western Balkans to enhance governance quality and uphold democratic standards. This reinforces elements that contribute to disinformation, and creates additional chances for geopolitical rivals of Europe to gain an advantage.