June 13, 2023 | NPR

Jared Holt: large protests “likely” ahead of Trump’s arraignment, but no indication of Jan 6-level activity

Ahead of Donald Trump’s federal arraignment this Tuesday at a Miami courthouse, ISD Senior Research Manager Jared Holt spoke to reporters from NPR, BBC, The Daily Beast and USA Today commenting on the online activity surrounding the former president’s second indictment this year.

Though ISD analysts observed violent rhetoric and some ‘halfway coherent’ attempts to organize rallies, Jared noted that there was little to suggest from our online monitoring that the day would bear any resemblance to the same kind of mass chaos seen during the 2021 Capitol riot.

“Our findings suggest that we’re likely to see larger crowds in Miami than we did in New York after Trump’s prior indictment, but that it’s highly unlikely we’ll see a groundswell like we saw on the day of the Capitol riot,” Jared told The Daily Beast. “A Miami Proud Boys chapter has shared details for protests, which might suggest some members will attend, and a few individuals online have said they are going to attend while armed, which is legal in Florida, but neither has shown clear intentions of producing violence.”

When looking at the online chatter surrounding the news, Jared explained to NPR that “it can be hard to pick up on that with online analysis, frankly, without a really, really intrusive style of monitoring and unlimited man hours to review it. But it’s always a risk around these events.”

Jared’s full analysis is available on NPR, BBC, The Daily Beast and USA Today.

For more information about the indicators that ISD analysts consider when assessing event risks, read this Digital Dispatch from Katherine Keneally and Jared Holt: A field guide for assessing chances of online-to-offline mobilization.