Foreign terrorist organizations and violent extremists mobilize and call for violence in the US following New Orleans terrorist attack

21 January 2025

On New Year’s Day, 42-year-old US-born Army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar drove a vehicle into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans before engaging in a shootout with the police. Fifteen individuals, including Jabbar himself, were killed with scores more injured. The attack – which was inspired but not organized by Islamic State (IS) catalyzed vociferous discussions online, including among violent extremists and online supporters of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). This included calls for further violence against US targets, vehement anti-immigrant rhetoric, and conspiracy theories about government involvement.  


Key Findings

  • Online actors supportive of FTOs including IS praised the attacker and encouraged further violence in the US. Other users in this cohort expressed fear that the incident would be used as a pretext for additional military intervention in the Middle East, a sentiment shared by many USbased violent extremists. 
  • Activity on one of the largest forums for IS support spiked seven-fold prior to the attack and then eight-fold in the days after the attack, according to SimilarWeb data. In November and December 2024, the US accounted for 16 percent of traffic to the same forum according to SimilarWeb.  
  • Across various social media platforms, Telegram accounted for two-thirds of the discussion of the New Orleans attack among violent extremists. This reflects its continued status as the primary online hub for extremist activity. 
  • Despite the attacker being a US-born citizen, extremists exploited the attack to target ethnic minorities. This included calls for violence which were primarily promoted by white supremacists and neo-Nazis, as well as support for “mass deportations” which would include ethnic minority US citizens as well as illegal immigrants. More broadly, targeted anti-Muslim hate spiked by more than 260 percent between December 31 and January 1. 
  • The incident fueled conspiracy theories alleging that the so-called ‘deep state’ deliberately carried out the attack to stoke fear and resentment of the US federal government. These theories included antisemitic narratives suggesting Jews helped create IS. 

Introduction

Hours before Shamsud-Din Jabbar committed his deadly attack on New Year’s Day, he shared videos declaring his allegiance to the Islamic State (IS). In the wake of the attack, an article in IS’s long-running al-Naba weekly newsletter called for similar attacks while claiming the attack was not directed by the group. The attacker appears to have instead been inspired by IS and its underlying ideology. The incident reflects both the ability of radicalized individuals to carry out lethal attacks independently and without formal ties to a terrorist organization, and the continued ability of IS to inspire attacks.  

The attack came months after then FBI director Christopher Wray warned that the agency had “seen a rogues’ gallery of foreign terrorist organizations call for attacks against Americans and our allies. Wray warned that the greatest source of concern wasindividuals or small groups [who] draw twisted inspiration from the events in the Middle East.” Since Wray’s speech in April 2024, IS official and unofficial media outlets connected to the IS ecosystem online have made numerous threats to the US in propaganda. The most recent threat came from the media wing of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), the al-Azaim Media Foundation. A poster released by the Media Foundation on January 10 was titled Don’t wait for the New Year to take action”. It featured a hand holding a gun over pinned locations in the US, including specific references to locations and public events in Virginia and Tennessee. Following the New Orleans attack, the IS ecosystem praised the attacker’s actions and focused on translating and spreading IS instructional material containing specifics on how to carry out similar actions. 

While IS media outlets and supporters celebrated the attacks, other subsets of violent extremists in the US have manipulated the events to reaffirm their grievances, target ethnic and religious minorities, and drive conspiracy theories promoting anti-government beliefs. This Dispatch draws on a dataset of more than 1,000 social media accounts belonging to USbased violent extremists, and supporters of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) including Iran-backed Axis of Resistance groups, IS and Al-Qaeda (AQ). It combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to examine the primary narratives that are flourishing in online extremist spaces in relation to the attack.  

Cross-platform and cross-ideological dynamics

Discussions by violent extremists about the attack predominantly occurred on Telegram, reflecting the platform’s continued centrality as a hub for extremist activity. This stems from its ease-of-use and relative lack of content moderation. Conversations about the attack were also prominent on 4chan’s /pol/ board, which remains popular among violent extremists due to its lax moderation and amenability to users seeking online anonymity.   

Across ISD’s dataset, searches of keywords likely to capture messages about the attack revealed that from January 1 to January 13, Telegram hosted over 67 percent of violent extremist discussion. 4chan’s /pol/ board, YouTube comments and X (formerly Twitter) accounted for 19 percent, 12 percent, and 2 percent respectively. Other platforms examined in this dataset, including Reddit, Facebook and Instagram, featured negligible amount of extremist conversation about the incident.  

Across USbased violent extremists, groups who are primarily motivated by anti-government and anti-authority sentiment represented 61 percent of the conversation about the attack. White supremacists and neo-Nazis accounted for 9 percent of the conversation but were particularly virulent in advocating for violence against minority communities.  

An overview of prominent extremist narratives

Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and their supporters incite further violence and spread anti-American sentiment 

Accounts on closed forums linked to IS celebrated the attacker and called for more attacks in the US. One user stated “go out kill as many kuffar [disbelievers] as you can revenge ur [sic] brothers and sisters. Pick up your weapon and let your shots snap their heads. Design your belt (tnt or c4) and make your blood the light on believers and lava on the kuffar.” Others responding to this statement asked for patience and to spread propaganda to prepare others to conduct similar attacks. One account posted, “just wait brother, aid the brother do another attack likes the one in America, spread the poster, and spread our tawheed [unity] messages.” Several accounts on the forum post in English but it is unclear where they are located. Additional IS content called for individuals to identify “mass concerts, book fairs, sales events, demonstrations, or sports and cultural occasions”, describing them as “legitimate targets”. 

IS also released an article in its al-Naba newsletter (one of its longest-running official propaganda arms). It praised the attacker without naming him while taunting the US in the wake of the attack. The article praised its virtual world of supporters for inspiring attackers and asked others to follow in their footsteps. Some IS supporters distributed older instructional content on how to conduct similar attacks and evade detection. Unofficial support outlets churned out English versions of al-Naba in English to expand its reach into Anglophone IS communities. 

Much of this IS content moves through a robust online ecosystem spread across Facebook, closed supporter-created fora, and platforms such as X, TikTok, and Discord, which celebrates attacks and their perpetrators. These networks of IS support have been active for years, adjusting online practices to circumvent the moderation practices of popular social media platforms. 

The attack seems to have generated substantial interest from US-based supporters of IS. Activity from US IP addresses on one of the largest IS forums spiked prior to the attack and in the days after the attack according to SimilarWeb data (shown in blue below). There was a sevenfold increase in activity between December 27 and December 29 followed by a drop before an eightfold increase between January 3 and January 5 following the attack.

Chart 2: Visits to ISIS and Al Qaeda-linked websites and forums from US-based IP addresses

Between November and December 2024, US visitors into the IS forum made up about 16 percent of the total visitors to the site, approximately 6,901 visitors. The data does not separate unique and repeat visitors from the US; it also does not make a distinction that would indicate native IPs to those using VPNs. Several unofficial IS outlets made references to the US in content prior to the attack: most notably, this included posters using the US Capitol as a backdrop for threats of attacks. Such propaganda is common in these spaces but indicates the continued focus by IS supporters on the US.  

Some US-based supporters of FTOs were animated by their belief that the attack would be used as a pretext for additional US military intervention in the Middle East in support of Israel. This sentiment was particularly prominent among supporters of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance. Such narratives often alleged that IS was created by Israel as part of a strategy to attract US military and foreign policy support. These theories were also heavily circulated among USbased violent extremists, with both communities blending them with other expressions of antisemitism attacking Jews. This shows that FTO and USbased ecosystems are not necessarily exclusive. Instead, they can interact and amplify each other’s claims, allowing their dangerous narratives to reach even larger audiences. 

New Orleans attack triggers anti-Muslim and anti-Migrant rhetoric, including calls for violence

Despite the attacker being a US-born citizen, some USbased violent extremists capitalized on the attack by situating the incident within broader debates about immigration. For example, a message circulated by several white supremacist Telegram channels seized on Jabbar’s race to claim that all forms of immigration should be banned; in total, the message attracted nearly 16,000 views. The post generated substantial engagement, with users describing the assailant using racial slurs and calling for travel bans. One violent extremist Telegram channel reacted to the incident by attacking Elon Musk and Donald Trump for supporting legal forms of immigration, including the provision of H-1B Visas. Finally, numerous neo-Nazi accounts latched onto the tragedy to expand calls for mass deportations to target all ethnic minorities regardless of their immigration status.

USbased violent extremists also used the attack as an opportunity to stoke hatred and violence against various marginalized groups. Anti-Muslim targeted hate skyrocketed by more than 260 percent between December 31 and January 1.   

The day after the attack, a prominent violent extremist actor shared an article celebrating the Spanish Reconquista. This historical campaign involved significant violence and persecution against Muslims throughout the Iberian Peninsula, and has often been used in white supremacist discussion in the past. Several users reacted to the article by stating that this campaign also involved the targeting of Jews, expressing a desire for similar efforts to be conducted in the US.  

Numerous anti-government violent extremists also launched misogynistic attacks against female authority figures associated with the public response to the attack. This including the Mayor of New Orleans, the Superintendent of the New Orleans Police Department and an FBI Special Agent assigned to the investigation.   

Conspiracy theories attacking the US government flourish 

Conspiracy theories spread rapidly following the New Orleans attack, with numerous violent extremists claiming that the attack was a false flag operation conducted by the so-called “deep state.” A substantial portion of this discussion attempted to link the New Orleans attack to the Cybertruck explosion in Las Vegas. These narratives highlighted commonalities between the two perpetrators to suggest that US government agencies were behind both. A violent extremist Telegram channel with more than 110,000 subscribers made a post suggesting that it could not be a coincidence that both events occurred on the same day; the post garnered more than 14,000 views. Another message drew attention to the fact that both perpetrators served at Fort Liberty, a military base that hosts the US Army’s main psychological operations unit. They insinuated that the events were part of a broader psychological warfare campaign by the US government. Notably, mentions of the terms “deep state” and “false flag” spiked following the events of January 1. This again highlighted the fact that violent extremists frequently seek to exploit tragedies to stoke fear and vitriol against US authorities. Additionally, US based violent extremists claimed that IS was created by the CIA to advance US and Israeli interests, an accusation that was often fused with content targeting Jews, highlighting how these actors opportunistically leverage crises to inject antisemitic discourse into conversation.

Conclusion

The attack in New Orleans demonstrates IS’s continuing ability to not only inspire violence in the US, but also stir hatred, conspiracy theories and a desire for additional bloodshed among extremists across the ideological spectrum. The reactions outlined above highlight the increased vulnerability of marginalized communities in the aftermath of violence. When combined with baseless claims against government institutions, this can lead to the fracturing of social cohesion at times of crisis when it is most needed. 

Intelligence and law enforcement efforts remain critical in preventing and investigating terrorist attacks but effective strategies must consider the need for upstream efforts. These should be focused on protecting and building resilience among targeted communities, promoting intergroup discussions to bolster trust and combating the spread of harmful conspiracy theories. While thwarting every attack is an unrealistic expectation, significant inroads can be made in the fight against violent extremism by emphasizing prevention and social cohesion.